Warmer-than-usual temperatures are projected to persist until May, driven in part by climate change, posing a serious threat to food production in the Horn of Africa. 

This period, March to May, a vital season for stakeholders in the agriculture industry as it coincides with the onset of the region’s long rains, especially in Kenya.

According to the Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the Horn of Africa will experience above-average temperatures from March to May, raising concerns among policymakers over food security and the availability of water.

In an update ICPAC noted that warmer than usual weather conditions will be experienced across the regions with the exception of northeastern Uganda and some areas in South Sudan.

During the period under focus, day temperatures could increase to highs of 32 degrees Celsius in some countries.

At the same time, populations in some areas such as western and southwestern Kenya, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia and most of Tanzania, will experience wetter-than-usual conditions.

In contrast, most parts of Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Rwanda, Burundi, western Uganda and South Sudan will experience drier-than-usual weather conditions. The expected weather anomalies in the region are attributed to climate change, with the Horn of Africa being one of the most vulnerable areas.

At the moment, statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and IGAD shows that an estimated 67 million people in the Horn of Africa are grappling with decreasing stocks of food, and this number could increase due to increasing frequency of dry weather conditions.

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