Banks are expected to drive the country’s job growth in 2025, even as other sectors brace for stagnation or staff cuts, a new survey by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) reveals.

According to the CBK’s May 2025 Chief Executive Officers’ Survey, the banking sector is the most optimistic about workforce expansion next year, buoyed by continued digital transformation, expansion of branch networks, and efforts to replace outgoing staff. 

An overwhelming 88 percent of banking sector respondents indicated they are either certain or likely to hire in 2025, with 44 percent confirming definite recruitment plans.

This positions banks as outliers in an otherwise cautious labour market. Non-bank financial institutions, for instance, gave a more tempered outlook, with 34 percent saying they won’t be hiring next year, citing high operational costs, increased taxation, delayed payments from government, and automation trends that reduce reliance on human labour.

“Non-bank players had mixed expectations about hiring in 2025. Thirty-four per cent of the respondents indicated that they would not hire due to rising operational costs, increased taxes and levies, delayed government payments, and plans to leverage ICT to reduce manual operations,” said CBK in the survey.

The mixed outlook extends across other key sectors. For instance, trade and construction sectors showed the least optimism, with more than 60 percent of trade companies and 80% of construction firms reporting they are unlikely to hire in 2025.

Manufacturing and agriculture remained divided. In manufacturing, 30 percent said they "probably won’t hire," and 22 percent declared definite hiring freezes. Meanwhile, 42 percent of agricultural firms leaned toward no new hiring, though a small portion expressed optimism.

Transport emerged as a bright spot, with 75 percent of respondents indicating probable workforce expansion. Hospitality remained on the fence, with hiring plans evenly split between likely growth and contraction.

Despite the banking sector's upbeat projections for 2025, the broader economic context is more sobering.

Between March and May this year, 23.5 percent of manufacturing firms and 23.9 percent of service-oriented businesses cut back on full-time staff. CEOs cited reduced demand for goods and services, elevated costs of doing business, and weakening consumer purchasing power. During the same period, only about 11 percent of businesses in these sectors added staff.

Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2025 (July–September), 127 CEOs surveyed by the CBK have already signaled plans to downsize further — a worrying trend for jobseekers in an already strained labour market.

Of the 1,000 CEOs polled, 703 said they intend to maintain their current workforce, while only 170 plan to hire.

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